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Marshall Yang, Philadelphia, USA portrait

I'm an analyst at MentorTech Ventures. I organize Enterprise Tech Meetup and NYCCEO. Find more about me on LinkedIn, and follow me on Twitter and Google+. Quora

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Dec 10

Dropbox Revenue, Growth, and Projection

The first one in the series is here: Bonobos’ revenue, growth and projection.

The second: Spotify unit economics - Paying user ratio, gross margins and more.

And today we’ll talk about Dropbox’s revenue, growth and projection. Business Insider has the company’s 2010, 2011 and 2012 revenue as $12M, $46M and and $116M. This checks out with TechCrunch. And according to the same articles, the 2013 revenue is over $200M. We can almost sure that it’s under $250M, otherwise the company would announce it. let’s say it’s $225M.

The company is not growing exponentially anymore. As we can see in the figure below, Dropbox’s revenue growth doesn’t fit in the orange exponential function. I guess it’s been 6 years since the company’s founding, and the early stage exponential growth that Warby Parker, Bonobos and Spotify are having is hard to achieve now. The company is growing in a predictable way through – the data of the last four years fit perfectly into a quadratic function. We know it’s perfect because the R-squared is one in the blue quadratic function.

image

I anticipate Dropbox’s 2014 revenue to be 400 Million, and 2015 revenue to be $550M. It’s not very impressive considering the $257M raised. The company is seeking to raise another $250M VC funding, and nearly double the total fund raised. As we can see in the figure above, when the company raised $250M in 2011 the money didn’t lift the company’s growth from the quadratic trajectory at all. Do they have special growth tactics this time?

The calculation is here.